The Palestinian Forum for Israeli Studies, MADAR, places “The 2015 Strategic Report for the Israeli Landscape of 2014” between the hands of the policy makers and the public. The report tracks and analyses the most prominent developments witnessed in the Israeli arena throughout the past year. It also tries to predict the developments for the near future, and specifically their effect on the Palestinian cause and its dynamics.

The report covers the Israeli landscape through its seven main axes: the Israeli-Palestinian relations, internal Israeli affairs, foreign policy, the security and military axis, the economic axis, the social axis, and lastly, the axis of Palestinians inside Israel. The report offers an executive summary that comprises the most significant strategic variables that affect Israel's internal and regional outlooks, hoping to shed light on the Israeli landscape and its main and influential factors.

This report was written and prepared by a team of researchers and specialists of Israeli affairs.

Executive Summary

This year's report is published a little over two weeks after Israel's general elections for its 20th Knesset, and which took place on March 17th, 2015. To be noted is that these elections took place almost exactly two years after Benjamin Netanyahu's rightwing government was sworn in on March 18th, 2013.

In this report, we will try to monitor the elections' most significant implications and effects on the Palestinian question on the one hand, and on Israeli affairs on the other. We read these elections through the prism of the political, regional, and international developments, and link them with the internal and social changes as seen in several of the details in this current report.

What mainly characterized these elections was the deep polarization of the Israeli public, the elections’ unexpected results, and the formation of the Joint List, emerging as third power in the Knesset.

1. The elections: horizons and background

1. Netanyahu's return and internal polarisation

Contrary to all predictions and polls, Benjamin Netanyahu won the elections, scoring a resounding victory over the “Zionist Union”, which is an alliance between the “Labour Party” and “Hatnua”. Netanyahu's “Likud” party won 30 seats as opposed to the 24 seats of the “Zionist Union”.
Netanyahu's win of a fourth mandate takes place at a time of internal political and social polarisation between a conservative, religious, settler, right wing Zionist stream and a centre-left Zionist stream that differentiates itself as a rational and democratic Zionist alternative. This state of polarisation was reflected in the recruitment of large groups, among which is the “V15” movement , founded with the announcement to dissolve the Knesset, and with an aim to overthrow Netanyahu. Among those groups is also the newspaper Yediot Aharonot, a large number of workers in visual, spoken, and written media, and representatives of cultural, social, and security elites – mostly rooted in Ashkenazi Zionist labour movements, which helped increase the number of Sephardic voters to Netanyahu. Thus, they deepened the polarisation accompanying the elections campaign, especially with the increase in the condescending announcements and remarks made by Netanyahu's opposers against his voters, while hinting at the latter's eastern roots. Opposed to this campaign was also Yisrael HaYom newspaper, supported by American Jewish billionaire Sheldon Adelson.

It could also be stated that this polarisation and Netanyahu's win of a fourth mandate have brought to mind the state of polarisation between rightwing and centre-leftwing encampments – similar to the case at the eve of the presidential elections in 1996. As was the case with these elections, then too the polls failed at predicting Netanyahu's win, which was followed by a media frenzy and shock at the victory of the same candidate who was considered one of the inciters for Rabin's death and against the Oslo Agreements. However, while the 1996 elections reinstated legitimacy to the Likud party and Netanyahu at the time, the 2014 elections have revealed it as settler religio-national party, and is further proven as such from the voting percentage it received from the big settlements. The Likud received 46.17% of the votes in Ariel, as opposed to 13.4% for the Jewish Home. In Maaleh Adomim the Likud received 47.69% as opposed to 14.58% to the Jewish Home. Likewise in Givaat Zeev, it received 33.9% of the votes as opposed to 10.42% to the Jewish Home, while Yahadout Hatorah received 13.4% of the votes.

Undoubtedly, Netanyahu's announcements the eve of the elections that the right would lose should people not vote for him, along with his incitement against Arab citizens during the elections day, warning that the Arabs are arriving to vote in droves, contributed to an increased number of rightwing voters who voted once more for the Likud party. Nevertheless, this turnout would not have been possible had it not had a nurturing and supportive settler base.