The "Madar" strategic report for the year 2020, issued by the Palestinian Center for Israeli Studies "Madar," highlights the impact of the recent Israeli elections held on March 2, 2020, on the ongoing political crisis. The report states that these elections deepened the political crisis that had been ongoing for about a year. It mentions that Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister and leader of the Likud party, failed in his gamble to secure a right-wing bloc that did not require the support of Avigdor Lieberman's party. However, the report also notes that a new factor, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, disrupted the entire political landscape.
The pandemic provided a pretext for Benny Gantz, the leader of the "Blue and White" alliance, to justify forming a "unity government" led by Benjamin Netanyahu, arguing that the situation required the establishment of an emergency government. This surprising move led to the split of the "Blue and White" opposition camp into two factions and accusations against Gantz of effectively contributing to the continuation of Netanyahu's rule. This had implications for domestic affairs, Israel's foreign policy, and especially the Palestinian issue.
The report, which is now available electronically on the "Madar" website due to the postponement of the annual conference because of the COVID-19 pandemic, considers the formation of this government as a victory for Netanyahu. The trial sessions for Netanyahu, which were initially scheduled to begin on March 17, 2020, were postponed to May.
The "Madar" report focuses on the Israeli scene in 2019, particularly the internal political crisis. It discusses how this crisis affected the Palestinian issue and redirected its course. It emphasizes that its effects and implications extended beyond the internal political arena and became influential at the international and regional levels. The alliance between Trump and Netanyahu led to the announcement of several strategically biased political decisions, such as recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights before the September 2019 elections, following the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the relocation of the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. It was followed by the announcement of the "Deal of the Century" before the March 2020 elections. This deal aligns with the right-wing Israeli vision of the conflict and the settlement, seeking to legitimize colonization and transform the de facto apartheid situation into legal apartheid under the guise of a state. The U.S. State Department also announced that it no longer considers settlements in the occupied territories since 1967 as violations of international law.
"The Discourse Regarding 'The Joint List'"
The report, in light of the Joint List achieving 15 seats in the recent elections, points out a "shift in discourse" regarding 'The Joint List.' Members of 'Blue and White,' led by Benny Gantz, have invited them to consult on the recommendation of the candidate tasked with forming the government. They have discussed cooperation to support a minority government and have called for their involvement in emergency government or leadership of committees. This is considered a significant change in the approach towards 'The Joint List,' recognizing them as a legitimate political force and part of legitimate citizens. This is especially crucial given the right-wing campaign against this legitimacy, fueled by Netanyahu himself for several years, and its underlying infrastructure in the broader Israeli public consciousness. While this legitimacy is founded on the electoral strength of 'The Joint List,' it is also driven by 'Blue and White's' need to remove Netanyahu, leading to his and the right-wing's intensified hostility towards 'The Joint List' and 'Blue and White.'
It's worth noting that the Israeli opposition camp's primary goal has been to oust Netanyahu, without necessarily binding its members to a common political or ideological vision. The 'Blue and White' list, formed to specifically achieve this goal, led the efforts to remove Netanyahu ahead of the elections held in April 2019.
In addition to the Joint List and the Labor-Gesher-Meretz alliance, the opposition camp also includes the right-wing 'Yisrael Beiteinu' party led by Avigdor Lieberman, who shifted from a peripheral role to a significant political player in the effort to remove Netanyahu, despite ideological differences between the two.
The report highlights that amid the escalating and unprecedented conflict in the political scene and before the announcement of moving towards forming an emergency government due to the COVID-19 pandemic, internal polarization, rampant incitement, particularly towards the Joint List, intensified. This was extended to 'Blue and White' and others, viewing cooperation with 'The Joint List' as collaboration with terrorism supporters and enemies of the state. This polarization, according to observers, surpasses the one that preceded the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin. This led to the transfer of guarding Benny Gantz from the Knesset Guard to the Shin Bet.
The Fate of the "Deal of the Century"
The report also highlights the possibility of Netanyahu, who is accused in corruption and bribery cases, taking far-reaching political steps if he emerges from the COVID-19 crisis. One of the key steps could be the implementation of certain aspects of the "Deal of the Century." This is primarily driven by Netanyahu's desire to enter Zionist history, not as a result of corruption but as a historical leader alongside Herzl and Ben-Gurion. Additionally, it aims to shift the focus from his trial to political actions, which fall under the "Deal of the Century." This would effectively implement his political vision, transforming the current situation into a final solution. This means transitioning from de facto apartheid enforced by force to legal apartheid under the guise of a state. The inclusion of the 'Yamina' party, led by Naftali Bennett, in a government led by Netanyahu could slow down the implementation of such steps, but it doesn't eliminate the possibility of their execution under the right conditions and context.
The report, titled "Scene in Israel and the Palestinian Issue," focuses on the "Deal of the Century" and its alignment with the Zionist right's efforts to settle the Palestinian issue politically, ethically, and on the ground. It notes that some elements of the deal go beyond Israeli consensus and introduce topics that were not a priority in the Israeli debate on the final solution.
Strategic Goals
The report asserts that Israel continues to achieve multiple strategic goals externally, such as consolidating political support, using the "Deal of the Century" as an example, increasing the number of countries adopting the Israeli definition of anti-Semitism, U.S. recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, enhancing Russian-Israeli cooperation, and expanding economic cooperation in the African arena. Despite some challenges faced in Europe and complex relations with populist right-wing movements, reflecting on relations with Jews in America and worldwide who mostly vote for the Democratic Party and embrace democratic liberal positions that reject Netanyahu's government's alliance with Zionist Christian groups advocating esoteric and racist views towards Jews and leaders of right-wing populism worldwide, such as Hungary, Brazil, and India.
Four Social Issues
The report continues by examining the fundamental developments in four critical social issues that significantly shaped the Israeli social landscape in 2019. These issues include authoritarian corruption, economic and social inequalities in various aspects of life, developments in Haredi Jewish communities, and protests by Ethiopian-Israelis and the portrayal of their general conditions. All of this is considered in light of the consecutive governments' adoption of neoliberal economic policies over the past two decades. These policies deepened social disparities and served the interests of major business sectors and large investors. In return, they received various tax incentives, relaxed banking loan conditions, and government support, all while reducing public spending on essential services for the entire population, including the lower-income strata.
As in previous years, the report includes two chapters dedicated to economic conditions and security-military issues, as well as a special chapter on Palestinians in Israel, covering the most important political and social events and developments among them. It is divided into two sections: the first covers the political scene, emphasizing the "Deal of the Century" and its implications, including a clause calling for the annexation of the Triangle region within the 1948 territories to the future Palestinian state. It also touches on the three election campaigns. The second section describes the social scene, with an extensive focus on the phenomenon of crime and arms proliferation in the Palestinian community in Israel.
The "Madar" report is an annual report that monitors and analyzes the most significant developments and changes in the Israeli arena during the past year. It aims to provide insight into the Israeli scene with its influential factors.
The report was prepared by Honaida Ghanim, and the contributors include Mohannad Mustafa, Antoine Shalhat, Khaled Anbtawi, Fadi Nahas, Hussam Jurais, Nabil Al-Saleh, and Hamat Al-Zuabi.
