Ramallah: The "Madar Strategic Report 2021 - The Israeli Scene 2020" highlights the paradoxical nature of Israeli developments. Externally, Israel projects strength, akin to a "major regional power," yet internally, it grapples with a crisis, exemplified by the recent March 23, 2021 elections—the fourth in two years. These elections deepened political disintegration as neither Netanyahu’s supporters nor his opponents secured enough seats for a stable coalition, paving the way for a potential fifth election.
The Palestinian Center for Israeli Studies, "Madar," unveiled these insights during a Zoom conference in Ramallah. The report underscores that the electoral crisis isn't merely a product of partisan conflicts but results from profound internal transformations in Israel. It marks the end of the dominance of one group, giving rise to multiple groups vying for control, suggesting that this crisis isn't transitory but a consequence of structural changes with lasting implications, especially concerning the axis of conflict and occupation.
The report delves into the contradiction between external strength and internal turmoil evident in Israel's strategic outlook for 2020. Despite not facing existential threats externally, Israel grapples with internal strategic dangers due to the intersection of the COVID-19 pandemic and political crises. The internal system, for the first time, poses threats that may impact national security and erode collective immunity.
Identifying three key factors—Donald Trump's presidency, ongoing internal political crises, and the pandemic—the report notes that by the end of 2020 and early 2021, Israel showed positive signs in containing the pandemic through a massive vaccination campaign. Trump's departure and Biden's arrival ushered in a new era marked by American caution, raising concerns about the future Trump-Netanyahu relationship, coinciding with the International Criminal Court's decision to investigate war crimes in Palestinian territories.
Anticipating significant implications for Israel’s policies towards the Palestinian issue, the report expects a partial restraint on Israeli assertiveness, especially after the ICC decision resurrects questions about the Israeli occupation and settlement practices in the West Bank.
The report observes the political disintegration manifested in the increase from 8 to 13 lists passing the electoral threshold, including the fragmentation of major parties. It underscores the whitewashing of extremist Kahanist parties, potentially leading to increased efforts to undermine the Palestinian cause.
On the regional level, the report discusses the timing of the Abraham Accords coinciding with an empowered Israeli right, reflecting a geo-strategic shift in Israel’s regional alliances. This has been accompanied by an escalation in military activities against perceived threats in Syria, Iraq, and Iran, reflecting efforts to liquidate the Palestinian issue as outlined in the Deal of the Century.
Analyzing the reasons for Israeli assertiveness, the report cites Trump's administration, military and technological superiority, and several objective factors, including the fragility of the Arab strategic situation and the lack of a cost for the occupation.
Regarding Israel-American relations, the report highlights a divide between Israeli Jews, who predominantly support Trump, and American Jews, who largely favor the Democratic Party. Israel’s efforts to build relations with right-leaning European countries obstruct unanimous decisions on the Palestinian issue within the European Union.
In conclusion, the report notes partial changes at the beginning of 2021, with Israel navigating the end of the internal COVID-19 crisis but facing a deteriorating political scene. The Trump-Netanyahu alliance turns into a source of tension with the new U.S. administration, and the ICC's decision offers an opportunity to shift focus towards addressing settlement and Judaization policies and strengthening the Palestinian struggle to end the occupation.
The "Madar" report, an annual analysis of Israeli developments, aims to provide insights into the influential factors shaping the Israeli scene. Contributors to the report include Hunaida Ghanem, Muhannad Mustafa, Antoine Shalhat, Khaled Anabtawi, Fadi Nahas, Ass Atrash, Nabil Al-Saleh, and Hemmat Al-Zoubi.
