Ramallah: The "Strategic Report 2022 - The Israeli Scene 2021" concludes that Israel has succeeded in accumulating further regional gains through normalization agreements, alongside improving its official relations with Western countries during the tenure of the Bennett/Lapid government. It notes that this improvement remains constrained by a set of pressing international challenges, most notably the "Iranian Nuclear" negotiations, which are diverging from Israeli desires. There is also a significant shift in the discourse of international human rights organizations towards Israel, moving from describing it as an occupying state within the 1967 borders to considering it a state implementing apartheid between the river and the sea.
In this context, the report highlights Israel's increasing efforts to delegitimize Palestinian narratives and isolate them. Israel does this by pursuing Palestinian institutions accused of practicing apartheid and war crimes, declaring them "illegal" and supporters of "terrorism." Israel also restricts Palestinian content on social media platforms and launches popular diplomatic initiatives to defend itself. Additionally, it attempts to delegitimize international institutions or voices that oppose Israeli policies or accuse it of practicing apartheid by accusing them of anti-Semitism.
The report, announced by the Palestinian Center for Israeli Studies (Madar) in a Zoom conference managed by Guevara Al-Badri in Ramallah, today, Monday, also notes that despite regional and official international improvements, Israel has experienced intertwined internal developments driven by contradictory directions. On one hand, there is a move towards expanding citizenship through the inclusion of an Arab party in the government coalition for the first time. On the other hand, there is a reinforcement of the occupation and an increase in the role of settlers, who have shifted from the margins to the mainstream. This was reflected in the May uprising and its ideological and field reinforcement of settlements, as well as the transfer of their activities to mixed coastal cities. The uprising also showed a trend towards "blurring" the Green Line for Palestinians, including all Palestinians organized on a national basis on both sides of the Green Line.
Russian/Ukrainian War
The report examines the dynamics of the Russian war on Ukraine and Israeli engagement with it, indicating the possibility of its impact on Israeli policies towards Palestinians by exploiting Western preoccupation with the conflict with Russia. Consequently, Israel can expand its maneuverability and increase settlement, Judaization, and continued annexation by importing tens of thousands of immigrants from Ukraine and Russia to Israel and settling them in various areas, including settlements.
The report analyzes the regional repercussions of the war, as Israel fears that its explicit alignment with the Western camp could lead to a loss of its freedom of action in Syria. Israel also fears an increase in Iran's presence in Syria, which it considers a direct threat, in addition to the potential deterioration on the Syrian/Lebanese northern front through heating up the front or lifting restrictions on military activities.
In this regard, the report states that, given the interests facing Russia and the complications of alignment and its consequences, Israel is trying to play the role of mediator and turn its "neutrality" and strong relations with all conflicting parties into an important diplomatic tool to overcome the challenges of alignment. Moreover, it aims to whitewash its "occupation" and enhance its international image and status.
Regional Status
The report considers the "Abraham Accords" to have enhanced Israel's position as part of the geo/political map. This has been achieved by translating the accords into the signing of dozens of agreements, memoranda of understanding, and cooperation with "Ibrahim Peace" countries. In the face of the disintegration of countries that were previously considered a "source of threat" such as Iraq and Syria, in addition to peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan, Israel no longer sees the Arab world as a source of threat. The risks of a direct confrontation with regular armies have decreased. In light of this, "Arab/Israeli cooperation" has been built and organized against Iran, non-state Islamic movements, Hezbollah, and others.
The report also states that the fall of Netanyahu and the establishment of a "change government" have contributed to improving Israel's relations with regional countries that experienced cool relations during his tenure. Relations with Jordan have improved, as well as the political relationship with Egypt. Additionally, relations with Turkey have improved, as demonstrated by Isaac Herzog's visit to Turkey on March 9, 2022, and his meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. However, the report also indicates that Israel still sees the lack of penetration of peace into the popular/mass level as a major challenge.
The report considers that the "Abraham Accords" and their warm dynamics contribute not only to normalizing Israel in the region and making it part of alliances and the regional fabric but also to "normalizing" the occupation and expanding Israel's margin to continue settlement and Judaization.
International Developments
Internationally, the report states that there has been an improvement in Israel's relationship with the new American administration after relations with the Democratic Party witnessed significant tension during Netanyahu's government. The current government seeks to repair Israel's standing and reposition itself outside of the internal partisan alignments that resulted from Netanyahu's clear alignment with Republicans and Trump. In contrast, the Biden administration shows a desire to restore relations to their previous state, despite differences on key issues, most notably the Iranian file and relations with China.
On the European level, the report suggests that the new Israeli government aims to distance itself from right-wing populist regimes that Netanyahu deepened cooperation with. Instead, it seeks to get closer to Western central countries that were neglected. The Russian war on Ukraine undoubtedly provides an additional boost to this direction.
"The Change Government" and Internal Fractures
The report analyzes the context of the formation of the "Change Government" in Israel, which was formed based on a fragile alliance after 12 years of Benjamin Netanyahu's rule and a severe political crisis that included four election rounds in two years.
The report considers that the composition of the Israeli government coalition, in particular, and the political party landscape in general, reveal the depth of internal division and its reproduction on an ethno/ideological basis between two camps: the new national right-wing camp, which includes religious nationalist extremists and majority from the East, and extreme religious parties. On the other hand, there is the "Founders' Inheritors" camp, which is also called "Israel's First," consisting mainly of Ashkenazi descendants of the founding generation, including revisionist right-wing and secular right-wing parties, centrist parties, and the left. The report notes that there are deep ideological divisions within Israeli society that are being reflected in its political landscape.
Inclusion of an Arab Party in the Coalition
Regarding the inclusion of an Arab party in the government coalition, the report states that this move disrupted the traditional rules of Israeli political action, which typically excludes Arab parties automatically from government coalitions and usually defines "legitimacy" within the Jewish boundaries of members or within Arab Zionist parties.
The report notes: In contrast, the inclusion of the United Arab List in the government coalition represents a strategic turning point for Palestinians in Israel because it involves accepting integration into the existing structure based on its terms and on a broad coalition basis, which contradicts international law (not just the Palestinian position), represented by the occupation, the status of Jerusalem, and settlements.
Commentary
In his commentary on the report, Dr. George Jaqaman, a professor in the Master's programs in Democracy, Human Rights, and Arab Studies at Birzeit University, emphasizes the importance of the international reports that connect Israel with apartheid. He sees them as the beginning of a long path that requires a lot of work within a new confrontation project. This project should be based on elements related to people's interests, oppose land theft, support the boycott movement worldwide by building global networks through Palestinian communities, and adopt a discourse that the world understands.
In conclusion, the "Madar" annual report, prepared by Dr. Honaida Ghanim and involving a team of specialists in Israeli affairs, includes seven main axes: the Israel-Palestine axis, the domestic political/party axis, the external relations axis, the security/military axis, the economic axis, the social axis, and finally, the Palestinian axis in Israel. Contributors to this year's report include Walid Habas, Abdelkader Boudi, Mohannad Mustafa, Antoine Shalhat, Fadi Nahas, Aas Al-Atrash, Arin Hawari, and Ahmed Amara.
