Ramallah: The "Madar Strategic Report for the Year 2023 - The Israeli Scene 2022" shows that the far-right government formed by Netanyahu portends strategic consequences for the Palestinian people and their cause. It places Israel in an unprecedented internal crossroads affecting its direction. The composition, proposed plans, and role distribution of this government hold a significant potential to ignite the situation on both sides of the Green Line. It pushes Israel from a phase of maneuvering regarding the "two-state solution" discourse to a phase of eradicating it in favor of sovereignty over what is termed "Land of Israel," de facto annexation of the 'C' classified areas, attacking the Palestinian presence therein, and intensifying Judaization and settlement in Jerusalem and along the Green Line.
The report, prepared by a group of Israeli affairs specialists and announced by "Madar" in its annual conference in Ramallah on Monday (20/2/2023), states that the parliamentary election results on November 1 resolved the electoral crisis that has plagued Israel since 2019 in favor of Benjamin Netanyahu's camp, which won 64 Knesset seats. It formed what can be termed as the "Land of Israel government," on the ruins of the "change government," whose bet on the possibility of "governing without politics" failed. This experience revealed the impossibility of separating the occupation from national issues and internal party affairs, resulting in weakening the left in favor of strengthening ideological and extremist right-wing currents.
The report notes that the new Netanyahu government, from the beginning, wages a comprehensive battle to assert its dominance by dismantling the remnants of the Ashkenazi secular elite establishment. Yariv Levin's judicial reform plan is a central tool for freeing the government from any brakes and controls that could limit its ability to enforce its projects, plans, and policies.
International Implications:
The report addresses international affairs, considering that the policies of the "Land of Israel government" towards the Palestinian people and the internal judicial system might lead to the removal or at least the shaking of the "democracy" cover. It also pushes more human rights institutions and international parties to consider it an apartheid regime, increasing the Palestinians' chances of gaining more global support. This complicates the position of Western regimes that justify their support for Israel and their positions on it based on shared "values and democracy." The rift with American Jews and especially the Democratic Party in the U.S., particularly among the youth, deepens. This follows the "change government's" dual policy, which involved adopting a diplomatic language far from crudeness and provocation, while continuing - in actual practice related to the occupation - to follow Netanyahu and the right's footsteps.
The report reminds that the policy of the change government mentioned allowed improving Israel's relations with Western countries. It led to the resumption of the "Partnership Council" stemming from the Israeli-European Partnership Agreement after a decade of its suspension, clearing the air with the United States, and signing the "Jerusalem Declaration" expressing an unconditional American commitment to Israel's security and combating the Iranian nuclear program. It also aimed to reposition Israel away from the global populist right, with which relations strengthened during Netanyahu's rule.
Rise of the Extreme Right: Background and Implications
The report considers the significance of the election results and the emergence of the most extreme and religious right-wing government as reflecting deep demographic, social, and cultural changes in Israeli society. These changes have shifted the governance from the heirs of foundational Zionism to a coalition of elites that were not an active part in the Zionist project before 1948 or were on its periphery. The report considers the magnitude of polarization and its ethnic, class, social, and ideological complexities likely to escalate and difficult to dismantle, even if temporarily calmed.
The report analyzes the rise of extreme right-wing currents, where the Religious Zionism coalition won 14 seats, becoming the second largest party in the government coalition and the third in the Israeli Knesset. It highlights the importance of this on three levels: First, the rise of the Haredi current, the most extreme in settler Zionism; second, the shift of the Religious Zionist settler movement's representation to the Haredi current, becoming the central representative of the settlers after the Jewish Home Party failed to cross the electoral threshold, ending an internal struggle among settler Zionist currents for representation; and third, the normalization of extremism, as the Religious Zionism list includes figures who were on the police and Shin Bet's watch lists.
The Occupation Outside the Internal Alignment Sphere
The report warns that while the coalition agreements put the Palestinians on both sides of the Green Line between the jaws of a vice, distributing powers related to their lives between the "Jewish Power" party (inside and Jerusalem) and "Religious Zionism" (the occupied West Bank), the current battle between the opposition camp leading the protests and the far-right camp forming the government revolves around internal issues, primarily the judicial plan and the "override clause" that allows the Knesset to reenact laws rejected by the Supreme Court with a 61-member majority and change the composition of the Judicial Selection Committee to give the government a majority in decision-making.
The report emphasizes: Both the opposition and government camps agree on the central foundational Zionist principle of a Jewish state but differ in its nature. The opposition stream raises the slogan "Israel as a Jewish and democratic state" as stated in the "Basic Law: Human Dignity and Liberty" enacted in 1992, while the new far-right raising power today, champions the slogan of the "Jewish national state" as expressed in the Nation-State Law.
Thus, the report concludes that the consensus on the Jewishness of the state and the separation between changing the state's nature and the occupation allows Netanyahu's government to free itself from any internal pressure regarding annexation creep and deepening Jewish supremacy on both sides of the Green Line. It provides cover for the security and military treatment of the Palestinians, making them the most affected. Taking this into account, implementing the judicial reform plan or parts of it will likely escalate the protest movement and its expansion, with various implications that will necessarily affect the Palestinian issue and the prospects of diplomatic and international work.
Netanyahu's Government is Subject to Religious Zionist Settlement and Kahane Ideologies
The report concludes: The continuation of the government coalition depends on the survival of all its parties, intersecting with Netanyahu's need to pass the judicial reform plan that might provide him an escape from his corruption trials. This means that Netanyahu will give broad space to Religious Zionist settlement and Kahane ideologies to act against the Palestinians on both sides of the Green Line for the survival of his government. Considering the potential consequences of the government's policies in increasing aversion to Israel and expanding the circles considering it an apartheid, and the likelihood of escalating the situation on the ground, especially in occupied Jerusalem, his government will push in the short term towards pivoting diplomatic work around the "Iranian threat" and intensifying the use of the "anti-Semitism" card in facing criticism of Israel. Parallel to this, it aims to enhance investment in relations with global populist right-wing countries, deepen relations with the Republican Party and Evangelical, conservative currents, and push towards expanding normalization with new African, Islamic, and Arab countries. However, these moves and efforts will, in turn, contribute to strengthening the association of Israel with extremism and considering it an apartheid regime.
The report issued annually by the "Madar" Center and edited by General Manager Honaida Ghanim, in addition to the executive summary, includes chapters addressing: Israel and the Palestinian issue, the political party scene, the international relations scene, the security scene, the economic scene, the social scene, and Palestinians in Israel. The chapters of this year's report were completed by (in the order of the chapters): Honaida Ghanim, Walid Habas, Abdul Qader Badawi, Antoine Shalhat, Aas Atrash, Fadi Nahas, and Areen Hawari.
