While it is not possible to rely solely on public opinion polls to predict the results of the upcoming Israeli Knesset elections, which will be held on September 17th, they still remain the almost sole indicator of those results. They also serve as a catalyst for various political movements within the Israeli party scene on the eve of these elections. According to the latest public opinion polls, there seems to be some stability in the strength of the party lists participating in the elections. It also indicates, perhaps more than anything else, that the right-wing camp, including Avigdor Lieberman's "Yisrael Beiteinu" party and the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) Jews, is ahead of what is known as the centrist-left camp. However, it also suggests that Prime Minister and Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu can only form the next

government under two conditions:
 
First, including "Yisrael Beiteinu" in the coalition;
 
Second, forming a national unity government with the "Kahol Lavan" alliance.
 
It also indicates that this latter alliance ("Kahol Lavan") cannot form a government without Lieberman's party, and that the Joint List of influential parties among the Palestinians in Israel will win 11 seats in the upcoming Knesset.
 
Lieberman, for his part, seeks to impose a national unity government that includes Likud, "Kahol Lavan," and his party, without the ultra-Orthodox parties and the "United Right" alliance led by former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked between the "Union of Right-Wing Parties" and the "New Right," which now calls itself "Yamina (Rightward)."
 
It is worth mentioning that Lieberman refused to join the coalition that Netanyahu attempted to establish following the previous elections held on April 9th. Lieberman, at the time, conditioned his joining the coalition on amending the law regarding the military enlistment of ultra-Orthodox young men, which the ultra-Orthodox parties strongly oppose.
 
With the deadline for submitting candidate lists to the Central Elections Committee on July 31st, it became clear that 32 lists will participate in the upcoming general elections for the 22nd Knesset.
 
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leads the Likud party list, followed by Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein, Foreign Minister Israel Katz, Minister of Internal Security and Strategic Affairs Gilad Erdan, Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon, who formed an alliance with his "Kulanu (All of Us)" party with Likud in the previous May elections, Gideon Sa'ar, Miri Regev, Yariv Levin, Yoav Gallant, and Nir Barkat.
 
The electoral list submitted by the "Kahol Lavan" alliance is almost identical to the list submitted before the previous April elections. Knesset members Benny Gantz, Yair Lapid, Moshe Ya'alon, and Gabi Ashkenazi occupy the top four positions.
 
The new "Yamina" alliance, consisting of the "New Right" and the "Union of Right-Wing Parties" led by former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked, is led by Shaked. It is followed by Knesset members Rafi Peretz and Betzalel Smotrich from the "Union of Right-Wing Parties" and former leader of the "New Right" Naftali Bennett.
 
Knesset members Ayman Odeh, Ahmad Tibi, Mansour Abbas, and Mountasser Abbas lead the Joint List, which was recently reformed between the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality, Balad, the National Democratic Assembly, and the Arab Movement for Change, and the Unified Arab List.
 
Labor Party leader Knesset member Amir Peretz leads the alliance list between the Labor Party and "Gesher" (Bridge), followed by Gesher Chairwoman Orly Levy-Abekasis, Itzik Shmuli, and Merav Michaeli from the Labor Party.
 
Meretz party leader Nitzan Horowitz leads the "Democratic Camp" list, composed of the alliance between Meretz and "Israel Democratic" with former Prime Minister Ehud Barak as its leader. It is followed by former Knesset member Stav Shaffir from the Labor Party, former Deputy Chief of General Staff Yair Golan from "Israel Democratic," and Knesset member Tamar Zandberg from Meretz. Barak occupies the tenth position on the list.
 
Avigdor Lieberman leads the "Yisrael Beiteinu" party list.
 
Interior Minister Aryeh Deri leads the "Shas" party list representing ultra-Orthodox Sephardic Jews, while Deputy Health Minister Yaakov Litzman leads the "United Torah Judaism" party list representing ultra-Orthodox Ashkenazi Jews.
 
Most public opinion polls do not expect any list, except for these nine lists, to surpass the required threshold to enter the Knesset (3.25%).
 
This includes the two far-right parties, "Otzma Yehudit" (Jewish Power) and "Zehut" (Identity) led by Moshe Feiglin. The "Otzma Yehudit" party faced strong pressure to ally with the "Yamina" list, but it decided to submit a separate list. Its list is led by Itamar Ben Gvir, followed by former spokesman of the extremist rabbi Meir Kahane, Meeir Kahana, and one of the settlers' leaders in Hebron, Baruch Marzel.
 
Efforts to form a joint list between the "Democratic Camp" alliance and the new alliance between the Labor Party and "Gesher" also failed.
 
"Unity Government"
 
It was announced in recent days that the President of the State of Israel, Reuven Rivlin, may throw his full weight behind forming a national unity government, in order to prevent a repeat of the scenario that followed the previous elections in April, which led to the unprecedented repeat elections in Israel's history.
 
Several media analyses also confirm that despite Netanyahu's expression of opposition to a unity government with "Blue and White" and his rejection of Lieberman's efforts to form such a government, a unity government may be the only possible outcome of these elections. This is due to the majority of public opinion polls indicating that Likud, together with the religious right-wing parties and the ultra-Orthodox parties, will not obtain the necessary majority to form a government. Additionally, Blue and White, without Likud, would need to form a government relying on conflicting secular and religious parties, which seems unlikely.
 
Some analysts have pointed out that Netanyahu took the initiative over a week ago to publish an article in the pro-Netanyahu newspaper "Israel Hayom," in which he responded to Lieberman's efforts. Although the title of the article stated, "My Commitment is Clear: There Will Be No Unity Government," it did not mention the issue of a unity government or offer an explanation or clarification of his position. The article included Netanyahu's election campaign messages, in which he pledges to form a right-wing government and calls on the public to vote for his party, in addition to attacking Gantz and Lapid as "leftists."
 
Recent reports have also indicated that Netanyahu is seeking to attract votes from former Soviet Union immigrants in his election campaign.
 
Lieberman confirmed that if Netanyahu rejects his efforts to form a unity government, he would turn to another Likud Knesset member after the elections and present a scenario in which Netanyahu could be ousted from the party's leadership.
 
"Blue and White" announced its support for establishing a coalition with Likud but without Netanyahu, who is facing the possibility of indictment on corruption charges. Following that, Knesset member Yair Lapid, the second candidate on the "Blue and White" list, stated that their alliance is already in negotiations with Likud members regarding the selection of a potential successor to Netanyahu. Lapid reiterated his statement in response to Netanyahu's article in "Israel Hayom" and wrote in a tweet: "Netanyahu may be against unity, but senior Likud Knesset members fully support it, and they speak to us daily. If he loses by just one seat, the rebellion within Likud will begin."
 
Immediately after that, the Likud party announced that the first 40 candidates on the party's list for the general elections had signed a commitment declaring their absolute support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and confirming that they do not intend to replace him after the elections. The commitment stated: "We, the undersigned candidates of Likud for the 22nd Knesset, confirm that we will not accept any dictates from any other party. Regardless of the election results, Prime Minister and Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu is the sole candidate of Likud for the leadership of the government, and there will be no other candidate." However, a television report on Channel 12 (formerly Channel 2) indicated that despite this commitment, senior officials in Likud stated in private conversations that if Netanyahu fails once again to form a government after the September elections, they may reconsider their position. One of these officials downplayed the importance of the loyalty commitment, stating that if coalition talks reach a dead end, as happened after the April elections, Likud members may be forced to make tough decisions.
 
Analysts believe that even if the party leaders believe that a unity government is the right course for Israel, the customary practice on the eve of elections is to sharpen positions rather than blur them, and to create divisions rather than unity.
 
One analyst, Shmuel Rosner in "Maariv," wrote that Netanyahu and Gantz may say no to a unity government, but they may have no choice but to form one or face a third round of elections. He added that there is no irresolvable dispute between the majority of Likud voters, the majority of Blue and White voters, Lieberman's majority, a significant portion of Shaked and Bennett's voters, and some of Orly Levy-Abekasis's voters.
 
The political landscape in Israel remains complex and fluid as the election approaches. The possibility of a unity government is being actively discussed, and various scenarios and negotiations are taking place among the political parties. The final outcome will depend on the election results and the willingness of the parties to compromise and work together for the sake of forming a stable government.
 
Netanyahu is only interested in maintaining his rule!
 
Most of the comments on the commitment message signed by the candidates of the Likud Party list have led to one and only conclusion, which is that Netanyahu is only interested in the continuity of his rule in order to get rid of the criminal suspicions surrounding him.
 
Chairman of the Labor Party, Knesset member Amir Peretz, said that Netanyahu's megalomania has exceeded all limits. He added that the Prime Minister prefers to pay the price of the conflict with the Palestinians rather than the political price of a solution, so as not to upset the extreme right-wing religious who rely on him for the continuation of his rule and freedom.
 
Avigdor Lieberman said that the commitment message signed by Likud candidates proves that Netanyahu seeks only the continuity of his rule and the establishment of a system similar to the one in North Korea. He added that this shameful signing of loyalty declaration in the style of North Korea by members of the Knesset from Likud also shows Netanyahu's lack of trust in his party members.
 
The newspaper "Haaretz" wrote in an editorial in this regard that asking Likud candidates to sign a personal loyalty declaration to the party leader, in which they pledge not to replace Netanyahu, is a new level of deterioration in the process of democratic collapse that Likud is going through. In its opinion, the blind loyalty demanded from Likud members towards Netanyahu, as if he were a single dictatorial ruler, has eroded what remains of this party described by the newspaper as a "national liberal movement," turning it into something unknown.
 
It added that "unlike the new parties that have emerged in recent years, which revolve around a charismatic leader who has fortified himself undemocratically for years, Likud members have always boasted, rightfully so, that their party is one of the few parties in Israel that maintains an internal democratic mechanism. Now, members of this democratic party are required to show loyalty that reeks of totalitarianism."
 
Regarding the election agenda, the following should be noted:
Firstly, Netanyahu escalated the campaign to promote the policy of annexing the occupied settlements. In this context, he pledged not to evacuate any settler or any settlement in the West Bank. He made this pledge in statements to the media during a tour he made in the "Efrat" settlement in the Hebron and Bethlehem area at the beginning of August. This came after the approval of the Israeli Ministerial Committee for Political-Security Affairs (Cabinet) to grant building permits to Palestinians in Area C, which sparked criticism among settler leaders. Netanyahu told the settlers in "Efrat": "We see here the past, present, and future, and your staying in this place is forever." He added that "Efrat" and "Gush Etzion" are the southern gateway to Jerusalem, and he ordered construction in them and in the rest of the West Bank despite international pressures exerted on him. He affirmed that he will proceed with plans to establish an additional 8,250 housing units in "Efrat." He boasted of the growth of settlement construction during his term and confirmed that this could not have been done without two important factors: a lot of experience and real influence on public opinion in the United States.
 
Secondly, Netanyahu launched a dual attack on the religious Zionist parties and the Yisrael Beiteinu party, aiming to attract the votes of Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union to the Likud Party. His attack focused on the Minister of Transportation from the "Yamina" alliance, Bezalel Smotrich, and the member of the Knesset from Yisrael Beiteinu. He stated that Israel will not become a state governed by Jewish law (Halakha). Netanyahu stated during a meeting with members of the U.S. Congress at the Israeli government headquarters in Jerusalem that talk of Israel becoming a state governed by Jewish law is nonsense, and he emphasized that there will be nothing of the sort. To reinforce his statements, Netanyahu clarified that he has taken steps to encourage same-sex couples to adopt children.
 
Smotrich accused Netanyahu of seeking to weaken the "Yamina" alliance in order to form a left-wing government. Smotrich added that there are further indications that Netanyahu will form a left-wing government, and that's why he wants "Yamina" to be small and weak. He affirmed that only if this alliance is large and strong will Netanyahu have no other choice but to form a right-wing government and remain in the right-wing camp.
 
On the other hand, Lieberman accused Netanyahu of not wanting to form a right-wing government but rather being interested in a government based on Jewish law. He stated that Likud is a populist party whose members are only interested in continuing to hold power at any cost. He added that Netanyahu follows a policy of appeasing terrorism in order to achieve short-term calm, while sacrificing the long-term security of the country.
 
Lieberman pledged not to sit in a government with the ultra-Orthodox parties and also with the Meretz party. He pointed out that he is not afraid of a situation in which a unity government is formed between Likud and the "Blue and White" alliance without "Yisrael Beiteinu."
 
Generals of the "Blue and White" party instill despair
 
So far, what is happening is Netanyahu's success in imposing his political-security agenda related to annexation on the "Blue and White" alliance, which presents itself as an alternative to him.
 
Following Netanyahu's tour in the "Efrat" settlement, the leader of the "Blue and White" alliance and opposition leader, Benny Gantz, conducted a field tour in the Jordan Valley, where he pledged to maintain Israeli control over the area as part of any future peace agreement.
 
Gantz stated during the tour that the Jordan Valley is Israel's eastern protective shield. He called for plans to improve the infrastructure of settlements in the Jordan Valley. He pledged that reaching a peace agreement with the Palestinians would be one of his priorities if he is elected as prime minister, but he avoided explicitly declaring his support for the two-state solution formula.
 
Former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon accompanied Gantz on his tour. Ya'alon stated that Israel has neglected the Jordan Valley and affirmed that the "Blue and White" alliance will present a government plan to transform the Jordan Valley into a flourishing paradise.
 
A week later, the top four candidates in the "Blue and White" party, Gantz, Lapid, Ya'alon, and Ashkenazi, toured the border area with the Gaza Strip, during which they made war threats. Gantz said, "The next time something happens, rest assured that it will be the final round. We will crush the entire region with fire, and we will move as we want, wherever we want, and take the time we need."
 
One analyst, Uri Misgav in "Haaretz," confirmed that the call from the leaders of "Blue and White" in their current election campaign for war before anything else signifies the adoption of the rhetoric and approach that distinguish right-wing populism and settlement ideology. He stressed that replacing Netanyahu must happen because he destroys the state, corrupts it, and abandons it and its citizens, but not through promises of war or war crimes.
 
This analyst concluded by saying, "It is not helpful for the generals to enter the political arena if they call for war instead of achieving peace. In the world, the right-wing knows how to win elections through fear, and the weapon of the left is hope, but the generals of 'Blue and White' primarily instill despair."
 
In general, according to the latest opinion polls, there seems to be a stability in the strength of the party lists competing in the 22nd Knesset elections. It also indicates, more than anything else, that the right-wing camp, including the "Yisrael Beiteinu" party led by Knesset member Avigdor Lieberman and the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties, is ahead of what is called the center-left camp. However, it also suggests that Prime Minister and Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu can only form a future government under two conditions:
 
Firstly, "Yisrael Beiteinu" joining the coalition.
Secondly, the formation of a national unity government with the "Kahol Lavan (Blue and White)" alliance.
 
It also indicates that this latter alliance cannot form a government without the support of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, and that the Joint List of active Palestinian parties in Israel will obtain 11 seats in the upcoming Knesset.
 
Lieberman, for his part, seeks to impose a national unity government that includes Likud, "Blue and White," and his party, without the ultra-Orthodox parties and the "United Right" alliance led by former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked between the "Union of Right-Wing Parties" and the "New Right," which now goes by the name of "Yamina (Rightward)."
 
It should be noted that Lieberman refused to join the coalition that Netanyahu attempted to form following the previous elections held on April 9th. At that time, Lieberman stipulated joining the coalition by amending the law regarding the enlistment of ultra-Orthodox young men, obligating them to serve in the Israeli army. However, the ultra-Orthodox parties strongly rejected this demand.
 
In recent days, it has also been announced that Israeli President Reuven Rivlin may use his influence to form a national unity government, in order to prevent a repeat of the scenario that followed the April elections, which led to the first-ever repeat elections in Israel's history.
 
Several media analyses also affirm that despite Netanyahu's expressed opposition to a unity government with "Blue and White," and his rejection of the efforts made by Lieberman to form such a government, a unity government may be the only possible outcome of these elections.