It is difficult to speculate from the current point in time about the results that may arise from the upcoming Israeli elections for the 22nd Knesset, scheduled for September 17th. This matter is still linked to various factors, including the formation of new alliances or the reshaping of previous ones, as is the case, for example, between right-wing settler parties, Arab parties, the Labor and Meretz parties, and even within the "Blue and White" alliance. Alongside this, it is not difficult to point out several aspects in the context of these elections that appear clearer and indicate a certain direction or directions towards which these elections
may be heading.
Regardless of these matters, this analysis will focus on the following:
Firstly, the main goal of these elections for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud party, as they are the ones primarily responsible for these elections.
Secondly, the core agenda around which the elections are expected to revolve.
Thirdly, the prominent features that can be inferred from the previous elections held in April and how they will impact the ongoing dynamics in preparation for the September 2019 elections.
Election Announcement - Crisis and Events
As mentioned in a previous report, the Israeli Knesset approved in the second and third readings on the night of May 30th a bill to dissolve itself and hold early general elections, just minutes before the deadline given by the President to Benjamin Netanyahu to form a new government expired. This decision came less than two months after the previous general elections held on April 9th, marking an unprecedented step in Israel's history.
The approval of the bill to dissolve the 21st Knesset came after last-minute negotiations between the Prime Minister and the leader of the "Yisrael Beiteinu" party, Member of Knesset Avigdor Lieberman, reached a deadlock. Lieberman rejected various compromise proposals, affirming that they did not differ from what had been previously suggested. Netanyahu attempted to reconcile the demands of Yisrael Beiteinu with the passage of the "Draft Law" that does not exempt ultra-Orthodox Jewish men (Haredim) from mandatory military service, while also accommodating the demands of the ultra-Orthodox party, United Torah Judaism, which insists on their exemption.
The process of forming the new Israeli government and its failure were accompanied by crises related to the Haredi draft law, the Immunity Law, and the law curbing the powers of the judicial authority.
Therefore, it is expected that these crises will be inherent in the electoral battle, especially among right-wing parties.
While the leader of the "Yisrael Beiteinu" party, Avigdor Lieberman, announced his intention to focus the battle on the draft law and the need to adopt a formulation for this law based on the recommendation of the Israeli army rather than the recommendation of the Haredi parties, Netanyahu continues to focus the battle on the other two issues: the Immunity Law and the law curbing the powers of the judicial authority.
Netanyahu's aim behind this is to avoid the possibility of indictment being filed against him following the initial response phase during the hearing he will undergo with the government's legal adviser regarding pending corruption allegations. These allegations involve three cases: Case 1000, which revolves around suspicions of receiving "gifts" or "favors" from Jewish businessman Arnon Milchan and others; Case 2000, which involves meetings between Netanyahu and the owner of the "Yedioth Ahronoth" newspaper, Arnon Mozes, and the potential existence of a bribery suspicion between the two parties; and Case 4000, a corruption case related to the "Walla" news site.
Further Israeli analyses confirm that Netanyahu himself took the initiative to bring forward the elections specifically for this purpose, despite the presence of other alternative possibilities. According to the "Basic Law: The Government," if the legal period passes and the Knesset member entrusted with forming a government fails to notify the President of the State that they have formed a government or that they have failed to do so, the President assigns the task of forming a government to another Knesset member who declares to the President their readiness to undertake this task. However, Netanyahu preempted this step by presenting a bill to dissolve the Knesset and mobilizing a majority to pass it in order to prevent another person from being assigned this task.
According to former Israeli Minister of Justice Dan Meridor, who was one of the prominent leaders of the Likud party, the law allows for the dissolution of the Knesset in the event of failure to form a new government. However, what happened in this case was a burglary in the dark of night, at the last moment, before the expiration of the 42-day deadline available to Netanyahu to form his new government, according to the law. This means that Netanyahu brought the state to a point where he said, "Either I am the Prime Minister, or there will be no government." This was not at all what the law intended. Another person from the Likud, other than Netanyahu, or even a third person from outside the Likud, could have formed a new government, and only then would we have reached this deep political crisis. [ref]Dan Meridor: "Begin was a historic leader and Netanyahu is not of his caliber," interview. DeMarker, June 7, 2019.
Amidst his assumption of responsibilities in the transitional government, which will continue until the 22nd Knesset elections and the formation of the next government, Netanyahu appointed a Likud member close to him, Amir Ohana, as the Minister of Justice. Immediately after his appointment, Ohana made statements attacking the judicial system and the Supreme Court, triggering a wave of severe criticism. This criticism prompted both the President of the Supreme Court, Justice Esther Hayut, and the Government Legal Advisor, Avichai Mandelblit, to break their silence, which is usually and mostly maintained by those occupying their positions, regarding any political discussions or debates with any political officials.
Ohana opened this series of statements in a speech he delivered during a ceremony organized by the "Bar Association" to qualify a new batch of lawyers in Israel (on June 10, 2019). He stated that "those who seek the interests of the judicial system in Israel should be prepared to criticize it, which also means making changes within it." He added, "Change means reform, and reform will not be achieved if we succumb to baseless cries that warn of the end of democracy and the destruction of the authority of the law regarding any deviation from the current situation." He further stated that "it is inevitable to conclude that the judicial authority is the least democratic among the three authorities" (in addition to the legislative/Knesset and the executive/government) because "judges do not bear any responsibility for the outcomes of their decisions, nor do they undergo public elections every four years to gain public trust"!! And because "judges do not make their decisions solely based on professional considerations, necessarily"!!
Ohana did not stop there but delved further into the attack against the judicial system and the courts, especially the Supreme Court. This occurred during an interview conducted with him on the news bulletin of Channel 12 (formerly Channel 2) on June 12, 2019, where he reiterated a statement he had made several years ago, saying that "it is not mandatory to implement all the judicial decisions issued by the Israeli Supreme Court because "the highest consideration and importance should be the preservation of citizens' lives"! This statement was unprecedented in the Israeli political and judicial arena.
Although Ohana had previously made numerous statements against the Supreme Court and its judges (referring to them as the "gang of the power of the law" in a tweet on his Twitter account) and had participated in legislative initiatives, or even initiated some of them, to restrict the powers of the Supreme Court, all those statements and initiatives were made within the framework of his political and party activities as a Knesset member representing the right-wing Likud party. However, his new statements come now while he occupies the position of Minister of Justice, directly responsible for the judicial system, its courts, and the chairman of the "Judicial Appointments Committee." This is precisely what makes these statements extremely dangerous, as confirmed by a large number of law professors, legal commentators, journalists, and politicians.
And among these prominent figures was Professor Mordechai Kremnitzer, a law professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a legal analyst at the "Haaretz" newspaper. He considered the appointment of Ohana as Minister of Justice in Israel to be a "highly dangerous step" because "the sole consideration that occupies Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's mind and drives him to make this appointment is: who is the most suitable person to rescue him from the legal proceedings and the serious corruption allegations officially attributed to him?" Kremnitzer wrote that "the interest of the person who made this appointment casts a heavy shadow over the one who receives the appointment. The Prime Minister expects and awaits reciprocation for this appointment by serving his personal interests and goals. And since the appointment is temporary until the elections, it puts Ohana to the test: if he does not fully comply with his master's desire to be absolved from the legal proceedings, he will not win this position again after the upcoming elections, if Netanyahu wins and forms the new government."
Amnon Abramovich, a senior political analyst at Channel 12, agrees with these conclusions and says, "Don't fall prey to confusion, and don't let rhetoric deceive you. Don't buy old used goods. The upcoming elections are not a struggle between right and left, hawks and doves, capitalists and social democrats. The elections are a battle for immunity. Period." He further explains that Netanyahu is making tremendous efforts to unify the religious and ultra-Orthodox, the extreme nationalists, and the fanatics, and gather them in large clusters. He knows that cracks have appeared among many Likud voters, and many people have realized that he asks for their votes for his sake, not for theirs, and for personal rather than national purposes. According to Abramovich, the political debate in the upcoming elections will be conducted in hushed voices, if it takes place at all. They will not talk about peace, settlement, ending or reducing the occupation. The best outcome may be the formation of a right-centrist government, a "Blue and White" government without Netanyahu, while the left will have to wait for another opportunity.
Scene of Alliances:
One of the most significant results of the previous April elections was the decline of political and party forces that had formed alliances among themselves. This applies to the following alliances:
First, the Zionist Camp alliance between the Labor Party and the Movement, led by Tzipi Livni, which disintegrated, leading to Livni's withdrawal from the electoral competition. Meanwhile, the representation of the Labor Party decreased from 19 Knesset members in the 2015 elections to 6 members in the 2019 elections.
Second, the Jewish Home alliance, which was formed before the 2013 elections and also competed in the 2015 elections, disbanded when former Minister of Education Naftali Bennett and former Minister of Justice Ayelet Shaked established the "New Right" party, which lost the elections. The representation of the parties of the settlers' alliance ("Union of Right-Wing Parties") decreased from 8 to 5 seats.
Third, the Joint List alliance, representing the Palestinian parties within Israel, which disintegrated, and the four parties competed in the elections as two separate lists (Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am-Balad). They obtained a total of 10 seats instead of the 13 seats previously held by the Joint List. This disintegration also resulted in a decrease in the voter turnout among Arabs from 62% in the 2015 elections to 53% in the 2019 elections.
In light of this, there are movements within the ranks of all these previous alliances that have not achieved anything except for making general intentions known about "reunification”.
The four Arab parties announced their intention to run in the upcoming elections for the 22nd Knesset as a single list. This announcement came in a statement issued by the four parties at the end of their meeting on June 20. They affirmed their full commitment to the Joint List as the only option for participating in the elections and emphasized the need to expedite its formation to launch a strong electoral campaign and strengthen the political representation of the Arab masses. They also stated that the reasons and motives for establishing the Joint List in 2015 have not diminished but increased, and the upcoming political challenges necessitate unity.
The statement further mentioned that the attendees discussed mechanisms for formulating a political program for the Joint List, as well as a detailed program for parliamentary work and a strategic and administrative plan. They also explored ways to increase popular and grassroots participation in the work of the Joint List through the formation of working teams and advisory teams that contribute to supporting parliamentary work.
The participants in the meeting acknowledged that the results of the recent elections dealt a strong blow to Arab political work in general, and there is a need to draw lessons from them and return to the Joint List and adhere to it, not only as an option for the parties but also as a response to the demands of the Arab community.
Inside the Labor Party, there is almost consensus that they cannot run in the elections with a separate list. The party received an offer from the Meretz party to run in the elections as a joint list. At the same time, Ehud Barak has returned and expressed his intention to participate in the upcoming elections. There are also reports suggesting that he intends to form a new party to run in the elections.
There are also indications of a possible reshuffling of the "Jewish Home" alliance.
Prior to the dissolution of the 21st Knesset in May, Netanyahu took the initiative to merge the "Kulanu" party, led by Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon, into the Likud list, forming a joint list under the name Likud. This was the same party that Kahlon had previously withdrawn from.
In summary, it is still difficult to speculate on the results of the upcoming Israeli elections for the 22nd Knesset, which will take place on September 17. The outcome will depend on various factors, including the formation of new alliances or the reshuffling of previous ones, such as those among right-wing settlement parties and Arab parties, as well as the Labor and Meretz parties, and even within the "Blue and White" alliance.
However, it is clear that the crises that accompanied the process of forming the new Israeli government and its failure after the April elections, particularly related to the ultra-Orthodox conscription law, the immunity law, and the law limiting the powers of the judiciary, will continue to dominate the electoral battle, especially within the right-wing parties.
While Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the "Yisrael Beiteinu" party, announced that he intends to focus the battle on the conscription law, stating that the formula for this law should be based on the recommendation of the Israeli army rather than the recommendations of the ultra-Orthodox parties, Netanyahu continues to focus on the other two issues: the immunity law and the law limiting the powers of the judiciary.
Netanyahu's aim behind this is to avoid the possibility of facing indictments during the initial hearing before the Attorney General regarding the serious corruption allegations against him. Many analysts believe that the upcoming elections will be a battle over this objective, rather than a struggle between right and left or issues related to peace, settlement, or ending/reducing the occupation.
