This paper aims to analyze the current situation of the "Yesh Atid" party, led by Member of Knesset Yair Lapid (later: Lapid's party). This name was chosen not only for abbreviation purposes but also because it reflects the party itself. "Yesh Atid" is a one-man party where Lapid makes all decisions, from composing the party list individually to determining the general and specific political orientations. This analysis comes after the declining expectations that previously positioned the party as an alternative to Likud's rule, following early

predictions at the beginning of this year that the party would receive more seats than Likud. However, there has been a significant change in the polls, showing a decline in the number of seats for Lapid's party and a surge for Likud, with a considerable margin between the two.
 
Introduction
 
The "Yesh Atid" party was founded by media personality Yair Lapid, the son of journalist Yosef "Tommy" Lapid (1931-2008). Lapid's father had previously joined the "Shinui" ("Change") party, which defined itself as a centrist party and adopted policies and rhetoric that were critical of the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community (Haredim). The party achieved significant electoral success, but it was not different from other parties that identified themselves as centrist parties. They all emerged and disappeared from Israeli political life after achieving temporary successes in elections, a reality that Lapid's son faced when establishing his own party.
 
Yair Lapid established the "Yesh Atid" party as a centrist party, targeting the Israeli middle class in his discourse. He focused on the theme of equal burden-sharing, advocating for the imposition of economic and military burdens on all sectors of Israeli society. Lapid claimed that the secular Israeli middle class bears these burdens alone, while other sectors, especially the religious Jews, do not participate in them. The term "burden" is a common Israeli concept that refers to the idea that some people fulfill their duties while others enjoy rights without fulfilling obligations. Although Lapid portrayed his discourse as a centrist one, it is, in reality, a right-wing discourse. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party, which obtained 15 seats in the 2009 elections, promoted the slogan "No rights without obligations," primarily targeting Palestinians within Israel. In the recent elections, Lieberman replaced this slogan with "Equality in bearing the burden."
 
Lapid personally selected his election list, as the party did not hold internal primaries to choose its members. In this regard, the party followed the path of religious parties like Shas and United Torah Judaism, where the Council of Torah Sages selects the party list. It also resembled the approach of personal parties like the "Yisrael Beiteinu" party led by Lieberman.
 
 
However, Lapid adopted a different approach from his father. His party did not present itself as anti-religious but rather as a champion for the middle class. He included religious figures in his party list who embraced progressive positions on economic and social issues (such as former Minister of Education from the party, Shay Piron). The party's website outlines its ideological foundation under the section "Who We Are." It lists the main axes of its ideological orientation in political, economic, and social issues. It begins by defining its vision of the state's identity: "We believe that Israel is a Jewish democratic state with the spirit of the vision of the prophets of Israel. We believe in our right to live in a state with a Jewish majority, living within secure and defensible borders." It also indicates its vision for the relationship between the State of Israel and the Jewish people worldwide: "We believe that it is the state's duty to act as a center for the Jewish people, caring for every Jew persecuted because of their Jewishness anywhere in the world." 
 
The ideological foundation suggests that the party emerged from within the Zionist-Jewish consensus on the state's identity. According to the party, the state should not only be Jewish in its cultural identity and orientation but should also have a Jewish majority, serving as the state of the Jewish people everywhere.
 
On the economic side, the party calls for increased participation in the labor market by sectors that are not active in Israeli society. It emphasizes the state's responsibility to support the middle class as the productive sector of the market.
 
In terms of the party's political aspect, its right-wing orientation is evident in its program. It states: "Yesh Atid party does not agree with the self-accusations launched by a part of the Israeli and Jewish public regarding the peace issue. We believe that the Palestinians have repeatedly rejected Israel's extended hand for peace, as was evident in the first and second intifadas and after the unilateral disengagement from Gaza. Instead of building hospitals and schools in place of the Gush Katif settlements in Gaza, they chose to launch thousands of rockets at civilians. They also rejected Ehud Olmert's proposal." 
 
The party suggests adopting the two-state solution, not out of recognition of the Palestinians' national rights but rather to preserve Israel as a Jewish state with a Jewish majority. The party considers the settlers to be genuine Zionists. The program indicates that "peace is the only reasonable solution to the demographic threat and ideas such as a state of all its citizens and a dual-nationality state." As for the party's proposed final solution, it consists of a two-state solution without returning to the pre-June 5, 1967, lines, keeping the settlement blocs in the West Bank, maintaining a unified and eternal Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and resolving the refugee problem within the Palestinian state only. Israel retains the right to combat "terrorism" even within the future Palestinian state that will be established. 
 
The party's political program clarifies that it does not present a fundamentally different vision, years after its establishment, from what Netanyahu presented in the Bar Ilan speech. However, while Netanyahu demands Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, Lapid aims to achieve that recognition in practice.
 
Elections 2013: The Election Surprise
 
The victory of the Yesh Atid party was a surprise in the 2013 Israeli general elections, as it won 19 seats (14.3% of the votes) in its first electoral participation, making it the second-largest party in the elections.
 
There were several factors that led to the party's success. One of them was related to the personality of Yair Lapid himself, who represented the aspirational Israeli seeking a peaceful and tranquil life away from political maneuvering, which he highlighted during his campaign. Unlike his father, Lapid's speech was not anti-religious. This does not mean that his social base consisted solely of Orthodox Jews, but rather that they did not want a party whose discourse solely revolved around that. Lapid formed a list that included individuals who were not previous members of the Knesset (Israeli parliament). Instead, he established a list that integrated various segments of Israeli society, uniting around Zionist consensus on political, social, and economic issues.
 
The party's political and economic discourse combined elements of right-wing economic liberalism and elements of a welfare-state discourse. Lapid's economic discourse focused on supporting the Israeli middle class, which is geographically concentrated in the center of the country and predominantly composed of Ashkenazi Jews. However, he did not advocate for Israel to be a socialist-democratic state in its economic system. In other words, his economic discourse did not emphasize support for marginalized and vulnerable sectors of Israeli society but rather focused on backing the middle and upper classes.
 
One can also interpret the surprise of the Yesh Atid party in the absence of trust in traditional parties, particularly the Labor Party. The Labor Party and the Israeli Zionist Left had lost a considerable amount of credibility in the past decade. Lapid presented a discourse that managed to connect with electoral bases from both the right and left sides of the political map. Additionally, he was able to attract the middle and upper social classes who had decided to vote for the Labor Party following the social protest movement in 2011. However, they remained skeptical of the Labor Party due to internal conflicts, and thus saw Yesh Atid as an alternative. This was confirmed by opinion polls, which showed a decline for the Labor Party and an advancement for Yesh Atid. Lapid entered the government in coordination with the Jewish Home party, without the ultra-Orthodox parties. He served as the Minister of Finance and managed to pass the Draft Law for the Haredim during this period, which was later repealed in the current government. However, overall, Lapid did not achieve significant successes, and Netanyahu dismissed him under the pretext that he and Tzipi Livni did not vote in favor of the Nationality Law, considering Lapid's participation in the government as a weakening factor. Netanyahu understood this, especially when he appointed him as Minister of Finance.
 
Elections 2015: Decline of Yesh Atid and Attempt to Build Itself as an Opposition Alternative to Governance
 
In the 2015 elections, two parties competed under the umbrella of centrist parties: Yesh Atid and Kulanu, led by Moshe Kahlon. Yesh Atid won 11 seats compared to the 19 seats it won in the 2013 elections, while Kulanu won ten seats. Kulanu received support from bases ranging from the center to the right of the political spectrum. It obtained seats from Yesh Atid and from the middle social classes. Kahlon emphasized that he would be a socially and economically successful finance minister, unlike Lapid, who had failed in that position and did not fulfill his promises to his voters. Therefore, the campaign was directed against Yesh Atid because Kahlon knew that Yesh Atid's electoral bases in 2013, which brought it 19 seats, were its natural bases, namely the middle class with right-wing orientations. Kahlon aimed to address these bases from the right, declaring that he would not join a government supported by Arab parties. This approach brought him closer to Netanyahu's government, although he did not explicitly state it during the election campaign.
 
Yair Lapid, on the other hand, decided to remain in the opposition and build himself and his party as an alternative to Likud's governance. He pursued several strategies to achieve this:
 
Firstly, he aligned his declarative positions closer to Netanyahu's, especially regarding the conflict with the Palestinians.
 
Secondly, he engaged in international diplomacy, presenting himself as an unofficial foreign minister of Israel.
 
Thirdly, he incited civil society institutions that opposed the occupation, aiming to infuse his discourse with right-wing nationalism.
 
Fourthly, he embraced Jewish identity, considering Judaism as a fundamental component of his personality.
 
Fifthly, he adopted a security discourse that competed with Benjamin Netanyahu's discourse.
 
 
Establishing the Yesh Atid as an alternative to the ruling party
 
Opinion polls conducted in 2016, 2017, and 2018 indicated a continuous increase in the popularity of the Yesh Atid party, along with a continuous decline in the Likud party's popularity.
 
A survey conducted at the beginning of the current year by the newspaper "Maariv" revealed that Yesh Atid would become the largest party in the Knesset, winning 27 seats if elections were held at that time. The Likud's seat count would decrease to 22 out of the current 30 seats in the Knesset. The survey was conducted on a sample of 572 individuals above the age of 18, with a margin of error of 4.3%. The survey suggested that the narrowing gap between Yesh Atid and Likud was due to many voters seeing Yair Lapid as a suitable candidate for the position of prime minister. This survey was conducted during a time when public opinion regarding Netanyahu was conflicting due to a moral scandal involving his son Yair. A leaked recording revealed his role in a gas deal, and this occurred while the Israeli police were investigating corruption allegations against Netanyahu, in which Lapid served as a key witness. The survey also coincided with the passage of a law in the Knesset that prohibited commerce on Saturdays, which the majority of the surveyed individuals opposed.
 
Another survey conducted by Channel 10 in November 2017 showed that if elections were held at that time, both Likud and Yesh Atid would win an equal number of seats, reaching 24 seats each in the Knesset. The survey indicated that 24% of the selected sample believed Netanyahu was the most suitable person to hold the position of prime minister, while 18% saw Lapid as the suitable person. One-third of the sample stated that they preferred not to choose any figure from the current government for the position of prime minister.
 
These opinion polls consistently showed the rising popularity of the Yesh Atid party, which relies on the personality and charisma of Yair Lapid. They reflect the political considerations in Israeli society, the role of nationalist and identity factors in politics, and the inclination to question the effectiveness of policies and decisions made by Netanyahu's governments since the 2009 elections. The focus is on the negative outcomes that result from Netanyahu's decisions, which are aimed at gaining further popular support for his party. However, Lapid and his party have begun to adapt to the demands imposed by Israeli society, without providing any real opposition to Netanyahu, especially when considering the Palestinian issue.
 
During the recent events in Gaza and the launching of rockets by Hamas and Islamic Jihad towards Israel, Yair Lapid, the leader of Yesh Atid, wrote on his Twitter account: "The attack on Israeli towns near the Gaza Strip will not go unanswered. The security forces will respond with the necessary force. I hope to hear clear condemnation from the world against the intense attack on innocent civilians."
 
Lapid's statements and changes in his behavior and orientations coincide with various corruption issues involving Netanyahu, his wife, and their family scandals. Some analysts believe that the rise of Yesh Atid in the opinion polls is primarily linked to the declining popularity of Netanyahu and Likud. However, these surveys remain of limited value in light of Netanyahu's ability to overcome crises and various problems he faces, and his strong return to the political arena, possibly winning again in the upcoming Knesset elections.
 
Yair Lapid's popularity has not continued to rise; instead, it has significantly declined in recent months. This can be attributed to the following reasons:
 
Firstly, Netanyahu's consecutive successes on the security, international, and regional levels, including the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem, combating Iran in Syria, and his handling of the Palestinian issue by marginalizing it, as well as his personal international relationships.
 
Secondly, the economic achievements of the government in the past year, indicating economic growth and an improvement in the standard of living.
 
Fourthly, Lapid's populist persona, which takes impulsive and opportunistic positions. Sometimes, his statements lack seriousness and appear to be aimed at avoiding taking a decisive stance for or against an issue. This has led to the alienation of certain social groups, particularly evident in his recent vote in favor of the conscription law for the ultra-Orthodox, where he claimed it resembled a law he had passed while serving in the government, which contradicts the truth.
 
Fifthly, the conflict between opposition factions, which have started attacking each other, believing that seats are transferred within the opposition, making it difficult to attract seats from the right. This has weakened the Yesh Atid party.
 
Sixthly, discussions about alternative options to replace Netanyahu's government, with the most notable being the potential alliance between Benny Gantz, the former Chief of Staff, and a number of generals.
 
In the successive surveys conducted since May of this year, a continuous decline in the popularity of Yair Lapid and his party can be observed, while Likud's representation and Netanyahu's popularity have been rising. Yesh Atid party receives approximately 18 seats in almost all surveys, compared to Likud's 32 seats. If this trend continues, it would extinguish the hopes of Lapid and his party in changing the current government.