This paper addresses the issue of drafting religiously observant Jewish youth (Haredim), which is expected to be discussed in the current Knesset session. The Haredi religious parties consider this law important for them in terms of their political achievements in the government on one hand, and for the future of their existence in the coalition government on the other.

The Haredi parties consider the current formulation of the draft law, which will be presented for a vote in the Knesset in the near future, as a law that does not meet their demands and is not different from the previous law known as the "Equal Burden Law." At the same time, the parties in the current government, especially those opposing the demands of the Haredi parties, argue that enacting a law that meets the demands of the Haredi parties would weaken them in front of their electorate and portray them as susceptible to blackmail by the religious parties, leading to a decline in their popularity in favor of other opposition parties, such as the secularist "Yesh Atid" party or emerging new parties.
 
Background
 
The issue of drafting religious Haredi youth into the Israeli army has been one of the issues playing a prominent role in the conflict between this group and the non-religious Jewish majority, as well as in the conflict between them and religious Zionism, whose youth enlist in the army. In the past, there have been several legislative attempts and political settlements to find a formula to deal with this issue. Shortly after the establishment of the State of Israel, Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion reached a settlement with the Haredi religious community in October 1948, exempting them from military service so that they could continue their studies in religious schools (yeshivot). At that time, the number of Haredi students was approximately 400. In this context, it can be said that Ben-Gurion made the decision to exempt the Haredim from military service for four central objectives:
 
First, to alleviate the intensity of tension that could escalate in the young state while it was in dire need of establishing a peaceful nation-building phase.
 
Second, the number of students in religious schools was not significant, and not conscripting them was a price that Ben-Gurion could pay to maintain social tranquility.
 
Third, Ben-Gurion believed that Israel and the Jewish society would evolve towards neutralizing religion from the public sphere and diminishing its influence over time, as the number of Haredim would remain small.
 
Fourth, it provided legitimacy to Israel as a center for Orthodox Judaism after the destruction of traditional Jewish centers in the aftermath of the Holocaust. However, Ben-Gurion's four expectations proved to be unrealistic. Most notably, his expectation regarding the number of students in religious schools increased, and they exploited this settlement to be exempted from military service. The political influence of the religious and Haredi parties grew within the governments, and their members were seen as receiving rights and privileges due to their political leverage, without participating in military service. The issue of drafting religiously observant Jewish students became a demand from several non-religious parties for electoral and ideological reasons.
 
Nonetheless, the existing situation created by Ben-Gurion persisted until 1998 when the Supreme Court issued a ruling stating that the increasing number of religiously observant individuals exempted from military service under the previous settlement required a new mechanism through new legislation to regulate this matter.
 
Indeed, in 2002, the Knesset passed a law known as the "Tal Law," named after the chairman of a special committee established for this purpose, Justice Tzvi Tal. The law was initially set for a duration of five years. According to this law, the Defense Minister was authorized to defer military service for religious school students for four years. After the fourth year, the Minister had the authority to determine the army's need for a certain number of them for military or civilian service, or to continue exempting them from service. The deferral was conditional based on criteria set by the law. In 2007, the Knesset extended the law for an additional five years. In 2012, before the expiration of the law's duration and following appeals by human rights organizations to the Supreme Court, the court ruled that the law could not be renewed for an additional five years. This issue remained a subject of fluctuation and debate during Netanyahu's second and third governments (2013-2015), in which the secularist Yesh Atid party led by MK Yair Lapid participated and the Haredi religious parties were excluded from the coalition government. In 2014, the government enacted the "Equal Burden Law," which was, in effect, an amendment to the Security Service Law of 1986. Its main objective was to increase the number of religiously observant students who enlist in the army and subsequently integrate them into the Israeli job market. The amendment stipulated that if the Haredi public failed to provide a certain number of recruits to the army in 2017, reaching up to 5,200 students, the government would treat the Haredi public using the same tools employed with other groups refusing military service, imposing financial penalties and criminal convictions. However, if the Haredi public met this required number, the government would exempt the remaining individuals from military service after deferring their service until the age of 26.
 
With the formation of the new Israeli government, Netanyahu's fourth government, following the general elections held in 2015, and the inclusion of religious parties in the government and the exit of the "Yesh Atid" party, due to the government's alignment with the ultra-Orthodox parties, the amendment made by the previous government was canceled, and a new law was enacted to allow the deferral of the enlistment of the religiously observant until 2023. However, the Supreme Court canceled this law, claiming that it did not achieve equality among those required to enlist.
 
The cancellation of the law angered the ultra-Orthodox parties towards the Supreme Court, and reopened the debate on the enlistment of the religiously observant. The religious parties once again demand the enactment of a new amended law that suits their demands, while other parties, especially Yisrael Beiteinu led by Avigdor Lieberman, who serves as the Minister of Defense, demand a law that does not comply with the demands of the religious parties. This issue threatens the continuity and survival of the current government.
 
The current debate revolves around the law regarding exemptions from military service, following the void created by the cancellation of the old law. The ultra-Orthodox parties are demanding a law that aligns with their positions, while other parties are calling for a law that meets the needs of the army. Lieberman stated that the new law should be based on the army's recommendation, not the recommendation of religious parties. In March 2018, the ultra-Orthodox parties threatened not to vote on the state budget if the law exempting them from military service was not enacted. The government was on the verge of collapse due to this decision. The Likud party sent a message to the ultra-Orthodox parties that their insistence on enacting the law at that time before completing the discussion would lead to early elections. Despite claims that the threat of the religious parties was not serious, a settlement was reached to postpone the enactment of the law until the completion of the discussion. The government, specifically Defense Minister Lieberman, formulated a law proposal based on the recommendation of a committee appointed by Lieberman within the army, and the committee's recommendations formed the basis of the law that will soon be presented in the Knesset.
 
The new law, which the government intends to present for a preliminary vote, is expected to take place in the coming week. It includes a gradual increase in the number of religiously observant individuals being drafted into the army, along with granting privileges to them. Economic penalties will be imposed on those who fail to enlist, and the criminal sanctions that were present in the previous law will be abolished. Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that after the law is approved in the preliminary reading, a meeting will be held with all coalition factions to discuss the law and reach a settlement. It is expected that the ultra-Orthodox parties (part of the United Torah Judaism alliance and Shas) will vote against the law, while the "Yesh Atid" party from the opposition is expected to vote in favor of the law, especially since the party announced that the new law's formulation does not differ significantly from the formulation of the previous "Equal Burden Law" enacted by the previous government when the party was a member of the coalition and its leader, Yair Lapid, served as Minister of Finance. In order to pass the law next week, Netanyahu requested that all ministers cancel their trips abroad to participate in the vote.
 
Conclusion and Possible Scenarios for the Crisis
 
The debate over the conscription law or exemption from military service presents a historic opportunity for the ultra-Orthodox parties to enact a law that aligns with their demands, especially since the current government's continuity relies on the presence of these parties in the coalition. It seems that the ultra-Orthodox parties, after their previous failure to influence this law on the eve of approving the state budget, will not be able to back down from their threat of withdrawing from the government if a law that meets their demands is not enacted. On the other hand, Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman's party, Yisrael Beiteinu, and other parties, including Likud, believe that full compliance with the demands of the religious parties will weaken them in front of their respective constituencies, particularly the Russian-speaking constituency of Yisrael Beiteinu, which strongly opposes the ultra-Orthodox religious public.
 
An important factor in this crisis over the conscription law is the interest of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In the previous crisis on the eve of approving the budget, there seemed to be a desire by Netanyahu to escalate the crisis and go to early elections. However, then-Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon backed down from linking the approval of the budget to the enactment of the law and reaching a settlement with the ultra-Orthodox parties, thwarting this direction, especially since Netanyahu was facing a police recommendation to indict him at that time. The question remains: What does Netanyahu want now, after strengthening his popularity in recent months following the relocation of the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the cancellation of the nuclear agreement with Iran, and his war against Iran in Syria?
 
In our perception, Netanyahu will not lose in either case, whether the government is dissolved and early elections are held or the government remains until the end of its legal term, as both options are suitable for him.
 
Based on that, there are several scenarios for the current crisis over the conscription law, including the following two scenarios:
 
Scenario 1: Reaching an acceptable settlement regarding the law that meets the demands of all parties in the government coalition, especially since the majority of them, particularly Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party, are not interested in elections, and Lieberman wants to retain the position of Defense Minister for as long as possible.
 
Scenario 2: Enacting a law that meets the demands of the opposition parties rather than the demands of the religious parties. This may lead to the withdrawal of the ultra-Orthodox parties from the government coalition and an earlier election date. These parties, especially United Torah Judaism, have clearly threatened to withdraw from the government if a law that aligns with their demands is not enacted.