"The paper addresses the proportion of devout Jewish settlers in the West Bank, excluding Jerusalem, which has increased from 33% to 40% over the span of six years. This trend indicates a continuous rise in their percentage. Moreover, the growth rate of settlers in the West Bank is twice the overall rate, while their parliamentary representation has become disproportionately influential among the total voters on election day.
These findings stem from a research conducted by the Medad Center for Strategic Studies, relying on an analysis of election results in all settlements of the West Bank, including Jerusalem, during the recent March 2021 elections. This marks the second study of its kind, following a similar one released by the Medad Center in September 2015, which covered the parliamentary elections of 2013 and 2015.
The study encompassed 121 settlements, including Jerusalem and the settlement of Modi'in, excluding three settlements that were not part of the initial research from 2015. Two of these settlements were merged with others, while the third, due to a small number of eligible voters, shifted to mobile voting boxes, similar to several other settlements not easily identified by the Central Elections Committee.
The objective of this new paper is to examine the political and demographic changes in settlements after six years since the previous research. The demographic aspect is crucial as it relies on the official Israeli voter registry. Additionally, settlements were classified into secular, religious Zionist, ultra-Orthodox Haredi, and mixed categories.
Analyzing the voter count and comparing it to six years ago revealed a 21.5% increase in eligible voters in settlements without Jerusalem. In contrast, the overall voter count increased by 11.8% in the last six years, highlighting that the growth rate of settlers in these settlements was twice the general growth rate.
A deeper examination, based on natural growth rates, indicates that 66% of the settler population increase is due to natural growth, with the remaining attributed to new settlers moving into these areas.
Regarding electoral results, 66% of votes in settlements were secured by the four religious lists: the Religious Zionist list, Yemina, Shas for Eastern Jews, and United Torah Judaism for Western Jews. Meanwhile, the Likud party experienced a significant decline in settlements, securing 18.4%, compared to 22.4% in the 2015 elections. Together, the four religious lists and Likud obtained approximately 85.5% of total settler votes.
The research suggests a demographic shift towards a more devoutly religious (Haredi) character in settlements, with indications that their proportion may reach around 50% in the coming years. This is contrasted by a decline in the secular population, primarily settling in the western part of the West Bank, including Ma'ale Adumim, located east of occupied Jerusalem.
In summary, the paper concludes that the proportion of settlers affiliated with the Religious Zionist movement has remained below 40%, not due to a decrease in their numbers but rather because of the faster growth rate of the Haredi population.
This research sheds light on the implications of parliamentary election results in settlements, highlighting voting patterns within the right-wing settler audience. The political activity in settlements is noteworthy, given the considerable representation and impact it holds in Israeli politics. The right-wing settler bloc, including Haredi Jews, witnessed a significant increase in representation, securing 72 seats out of 120 in the March 2021 elections.
In conclusion, this study emphasizes the vital role of demographic changes in settlements, suggesting a shift towards a more devoutly religious demographic. This shift has future implications for Israel internally, in terms of the growing Haredi population, and externally, as it reflects the deepening alignment of the Haredi population with the right-wing settlement ideology, potentially influencing Israel's future direction."
