Introduction
This paper aims to analyze the electoral scene in Israel on the eve of the upcoming Israeli general elections, which are scheduled to take place on April 9th. This analysis comes particularly after the announcement of the former Chief of Staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, Lieutenant General Benny Gantz, the leader of the "Israel Resilience" (Hosen L'Yisrael) party, regarding his official participation in the elections and the presentation of the broad outlines of his political and electoral program.
And Gantz unveiled his program in his first speech delivered in front of a large crowd of supporters in Tel Aviv on January 29, 2019. He also announced the establishment of an electoral alliance with another former Chief of Staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, Lieutenant General Moshe Ya'alon.
Gantz sought the trust of the voters in the general elections in order to be able to "lead the people of Israel." He sent threats to Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and committed that his government, under his leadership, would strive for peace. He pledged not to miss any regional opportunities for peace and promised to work against corruption and attacks on the authorities of the law. He criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and emphasized that a person facing an indictment cannot assume the position of the prime minister.
Gantz referred to his long military career and affirmed that it qualifies him to lead Israel. He emphasized that Israel will not stand idle in the face of threats to its sovereignty from Iran or its proxies. He stated that leaders of terrorist organizations should know that Ahmed al-Jabari was not the first and may not be the last, referring to the former military wing commander of Hamas who was killed by Israel in Gaza during Gantz's tenure as Chief of Staff. At the same time, he indicated that he will work towards reaching a peace agreement with the Palestinians and that the government he leads will strive for peace and seize any opportunity for change in the region. If such an opportunity does not arise, he declared that there will be a "new reality."
Gantz added that he will strengthen Israel's position as a Jewish and democratic state, as well as enhance the settlements in the West Bank. He emphasized that Israel will not relinquish the Golan Heights and the Jordan Valley, and that a united Jerusalem will remain the eternal capital of Israel and the Jewish people.
Gantz directly warned Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, stating that Iran's plots against Israel on the northern and southern borders will be thwarted. He addressed Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force, and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, stating that the time has come to put an end to their regional aggression.
Forms an opposition bloc against Netanyahu.
It has become clear among the opponents of the Israeli Prime Minister and right-wing leader Benjamin Netanyahu that ending his rule would be achieved through building a large alliance comprising political lists and influential figures with popular support. On the other hand, individual electoral lists competing separately in the elections would not guarantee their ability to change Netanyahu. This is confirmed by public opinion polls conducted following the mentioned speech by Benny Gantz, which gave him around 24 seats in the elections.
For example, according to the official Israeli television poll conducted by "KAN," if elections were held now, the Likud Party would win 31 seats, followed by "Resilience for Israel" with 23 seats, while the "Yesh Atid" party led by Yair Lapid would gain 9 seats.
After the dissolution of the "Zionist Camp" alliance, the survey indicated that the Labor Party would gain 8 seats, while the "Movement (Hatanuah)" party led by Tzipi Livni would not exceed a significant percentage. The "New Right" party, led by ministers Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked (formerly of the "Jewish Home" party), would also gain 8 seats. The survey showed that the Joint List would receive 6 seats, the same number of seats obtained by the United Torah Judaism List, the Meretz List, and Knesset member Ahmad Tibi's breakaway list from the Joint List. Meanwhile, the "Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home)" party, led by Avigdor Lieberman, would gain 5 seats.
The "Jewish Home" party, the "Kulanu" party led by Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon, and the ultra-Orthodox Shas party led by Interior Minister Aryeh Deri each gain 4 seats. However, the "Gesher" party, led by Knesset member Orly Levy-Abekasis, who defected from Avigdor Lieberman's party, fails to surpass the threshold percentage.
Gantz, in this survey and others, has come close to Netanyahu in popularity as a candidate for prime minister. 47% of the respondents stated that Netanyahu is the most suitable person to assume the position of prime minister, while 41% said that Gantz is the most suitable. 12% stated that neither of them is suitable. In a face-off between Netanyahu and Lapid, the leader of "Yesh Atid," Netanyahu received the support of 49% of the respondents, while Lapid garnered a 14% approval rate. The survey included a sample of 538 respondents, with a margin of error of up to 4.5%.
The results of this survey, along with other surveys conducted during the same period, after Gantz's initial speech, indicate that the increase in his seats came at the expense of the Labor Party, "Yesh Atid" party, and the "Kulanu" party. However, Gantz's candidacy and his speech did not affect the representation of the Likud Party in the Knesset, as indicated by public opinion polls. Furthermore, hard-right blocs, such as the "Yamina" party and the new "New Right" party led by Bennett and Shaked, attacked Gantz. Bennett considered Gantz to prioritize the lives of Palestinian civilians over the lives of Israeli soldiers. There were many indications that this right-wing bloc saw Gantz as a threat to their rule and was willing to reluctantly keep Netanyahu in power to prevent Gantz from replacing him. This is despite the fact that Gantz's political speech was right-wing, nationalist, and even somewhat extreme, with elements that can be described as fascist, placing the state above all and using right-wing terms such as "nationalist".
This is what the political correspondent of the newspaper "Haaretz," Noy Landau, stopped at. She wrote that Gantz is not a leftist but rather an "old right." She added that the parrot-like reaction of Netanyahu and Likud, claiming that Gantz is a leftist, appeared shallow and childish compared to his statements. Apart from that, this reaction is simply incorrect because anyone who seriously delves into Gantz's statements, especially in the political-security aspects, will easily discover that he is not left-wing at all. In practice, he represents the old right.
Landau believed that Gantz presented a viewpoint that belonged to the liberal Likud of the past and represented a security-oriented individual who reaches out for peace. He is not afraid to speak about values such as equality and separating religion from state affairs as much as possible. Gantz also believes in a free economy alongside social security. He reiterated the slogan "We create a secure peace," similar to the different electoral propaganda once played by Netanyahu, which is now in contrast to his current stance.
Regarding Gantz's political-security program, Landau noted that he made a general military-national statement that cannot be omitted from any speech today to clarify "I am a Zionist." After that, he shifted the focus to the threat of Iran. In doing so, Gantz adopted Netanyahu's basic narrative, emphasizing that this issue is central to the security agenda. He then turned to Gaza and made a clear threat to the lives of Hamas leaders, hinting at a return to the policy of targeted assassinations. In Landau's opinion, "Apart from the jabs directed at Netanyahu regarding the transfer of Qatari money, there is no specific left-wing promise here."
Landau pointed out Gantz's vision for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which involves separating from the Palestinians in favor of a "Jewish and democratic" Israel, enhancing "settlement blocs," retaining the Jordan Valley as the eastern border, emphasizing security, making a general statement about the necessity of maintaining sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and, of course, "keeping a unified Jerusalem as the eternal capital of the Jewish people." She concluded by saying, "This is not a 'left-wing' political-security program. This is a program that many in the old Likud would support, including Netanyahu himself, and in practice, that's what they did as well."
Gantz’s allies
What further confirms Gantz's right-wing inclinations is the joining of former Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon to his list. Ya'alon is known to be a right-wing nationalist-liberal who does not support the establishment of a Palestinian state and believes in intensifying settlement activity in the West Bank. He may belong to the old guard of the Israeli right. Additionally, two well-known right-wing figures have joined Gantz: Yoaz Hendel, a right-wing writer and journalist who previously served as Netanyahu's media advisor in the Prime Minister's Office and currently heads the "Zionist Strategy Institute," which strongly promoted the "Nation-State Law" in Israel, and Zvi Hauser, a right-wing bureaucrat who worked alongside Netanyahu as the government secretary. These three individuals (Ya'alon, Hendel, and Hauser) share the commonality of having worked with Netanyahu and adopting clear right-wing ideological positions. They can fluently articulate right-wing ideas and have a better understanding of them compared to most current Likud members.
Many analysts in Israel have seen Gantz attempting to please everyone in his speech.
Moran Azoulay, an analyst for the newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, wrote, saying, 'Instead of clarifying his positions, he preferred general slogans that are acceptable to both the right and the left.'"
The political analyst for the newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, Nahum Barnea, compared Gantz to the early years of former US President Bill Clinton's tenure and said that 'suddenly charisma descended upon him.' Aluf Benn, the editor-in-chief of Haaretz newspaper, considered that there is an alternative to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
While Netanyahu and his close associates accused Gantz of being a leftist trying to appear as a rightist, the opposition welcomed his statements, despite their disappointment that he did not explicitly declare his refusal to join a government led by Netanyahu."
Netanyahu commented on Gantz's main slogan of "neither right nor left," saying, "Anyone who says they are neither right-wing nor left-wing is left-wing." The Likud party issued a statement stating that Gantz would form a left-wing government after the elections with the leader of the "There is a Future" party, Yair Lapid, and the rest of the left-wing parties. David Amsalem, the head of the governing coalition from the Likud party, said, "When comparing Netanyahu and Gantz, I believe the difference between them is like the difference between airplanes and boats."
As mentioned earlier, Naftali Bennett, the leader of the "New Right" party and the Minister of Education, also attacked Gantz. Bennett said, "Gantz speaks beautifully, but he is very weak in actions and in all the tests he has faced, including the withdrawal from South Lebanon and abandoning the Israeli soldier Madhat Youssef in Nablus, releasing thousands of terrorists, and the failure of Operation Protective Edge, where he was hesitant and stumbled. He is a nice guy, but very weak."
In the aftermath of Gantz's speech and his announcement to run for prime minister, the Israeli opposition is currently heading towards one goal: changing Netanyahu.
What does that mean? It means, first and foremost, that the main project of this election campaign is to remove Netanyahu as an individual, rather than challenging political projects or presenting alternative political options. Therefore, this goal brings together individuals from different ideological backgrounds. As mentioned before, Hendel is a true right-wing figure, no less than the majority of Likud members. In light of this, the Israeli political scene is heading towards the unification of lists and possibly forming a single list to compete in the elections, aiming to gain more representation than Likud, which would entrust them with the task of forming the new government. It is expected that new alliances will be formed within the same framework or in a new framework, in order to build a body based on the goal of replacing Netanyahu, especially after the collapse of the Labor Party according to opinion polls and the erosion of its leader Avi Gabbay's position.
In any case, the picture regarding the shape of upcoming alliances will become clearer once the increasing strength of Gantz's party is confirmed in opinion polls, and the decline of others.
Undoubtedly, the decision of the Attorney General, Avichai Mandelblit, regarding whether to indict Netanyahu on corruption charges or not, will have an impact. It has become clear that the Attorney General will make his decision on this matter before the elections. Mandelblit informed Netanyahu's defense team that he sees no obstacle in resolving the cases against his client before the elections, which means he rejected the defense lawyer's request to postpone the decision until after the elections for fear of its impact on Israeli voters.
It can be said that the Attorney General's decision may shift the electoral landscape in a different direction. Despite right-wing parties, including ultra-Orthodox parties, announcing that they have no issue with forming a coalition with a Netanyahu-led government even if he is indicted, the indictment would provide ammunition for Gantz and his allies to embarrass these parties and attempt to attract votes from the liberal right. This aligns with Gantz's positions on one hand and with Ya'alon on the other.
In the final analysis, based on numerous estimates and accumulated facts, the election campaign this time will focus on Netanyahu as an individual rather than political platforms. This is because the Israeli political discourse largely adopts right-wing agendas, starting with Gantz, passing through Lapid, and even including Gabbay himself.
