This paper addresses the recent movements and dynamics within the Israeli political arena, which are taking place amidst the uncertainty surrounding the fate of the current Knesset, oscillating between the possibilities of its continuation or dissolution. This uncertainty leaves political players in a state of anticipation and hesitation. However, the Israeli political landscape is witnessing political dynamics that indicate upcoming elections or at least confirm that the next elections will not be held on schedule.
What raises the question is that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is considered the only person capable of determining the election date, as he will only announce early elections if he deems it favorable for him.
Nevertheless, this paper estimates that the current electoral reality is still unable to present a viable alternative to Netanyahu. Furthermore, the struggle for electoral bases is now taking place within the same camps, rather than between them, meaning within the coalition camp and among its components, as well as within the opposition and among its components.
Introduction
The Basic Law of the Knesset indicates that the Knesset can propose a law to dissolve itself, vote on it, and thus become a temporary Knesset until the new Knesset is elected. The law specifies that the election must take place no later than ninety days after the vote to dissolve the Knesset.
The current government coalition is considered the most stable in decades. This coalition has been in place since 2015, and its longevity is attributed to the political-diplomatic alignment, especially regarding the Palestinian issue, among the coalition parties. Despite divergent positions on issues related to religion and state, economic perspectives, and the status of the legislative authority compared to the executive and judicial branches, these differences no longer have an impact on destabilizing the current government. Although tensions occasionally arise among its components regarding domestic matters, they have managed to successfully overcome these tensions. This can be attributed to two central factors:
Firstly, the conviction of the coalition lists and parties that there is no alternative to Likud in governance in general, and to Netanyahu in particular, in the Israeli political scene. This motivates them to remain in this government.
Secondly, the fear among these lists of a decline in their parliamentary representation in the elections, especially in favor of Likud or a new party that may emerge on the political scene, as indicated by recent public opinion polls in Israel.
Some Israeli estimations indicate that the law regarding the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jewish youth (the religious extremists) may be the cause for the dissolution of the Knesset, which is the latest challenge facing the government coalition after overcoming many internal disagreements, such as the "Nation-State Law" and working on Saturdays. However, some members of the government coalition believe that this issue can also be resolved if Netanyahu personally intervenes in the matter. However, Netanyahu keeps this issue alive to exploit it and dissolve the Knesset whenever he wants, claiming that the coalition parties are unable to reach a settlement on the issue. The coalition parties are aware of this reality, and therefore they escalate their positions on this issue to maintain the satisfaction of their social bases. However, if they become convinced that Netanyahu is not interested in resolving it and continuing the government until the end of its legal term, they will inevitably accept reaching a settlement on this matter.
Another issue that affects the likelihood of early elections is the matter of corruption charges against Netanyahu. It was expected that these cases would conclude in terms of investigation and the filing of an indictment a while ago. However, the procrastination of the government's legal advisor has prevented a clear understanding of the prospects of these cases. Many observers believe that there is clear procrastination on the part of the legal advisor. It has become evident that these cases will not have a significant impact on the political scene regarding the timing of the elections. Even if the legal advisor presents an indictment against Netanyahu, the hearing process could take several months. In any case, Netanyahu has declared that he will not resign even if the legal advisor files an indictment against him. Furthermore, the position of the coalition parties in the government is not clear yet, and except for Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon and his party "Kulanu," there is no consistent stance on their continuation in the government if the government's legal advisor recommends filing an indictment against Netanyahu. Some parties no longer link their resignation to the mere filing of an indictment but will base their position on the content and severity of the charges.
The current electoral landscape.
Public opinion polls conducted in recent weeks indicate that the Likud party's representation in the Knesset remains stable, at least. Meanwhile, the "Yesh Atid" party, led by Member of Knesset Yair Lapid, comes in second place with a significant margin of twelve seats. According to all recent surveys, Likud and Netanyahu are projected to continue leading the Israeli government. Netanyahu has set a target of 40 parliamentary seats, which put pressure on his right-wing partners. For example, the "Jewish Home" party, led by Minister Naftali Bennett, was projected to have 12 seats on the eve of the previous elections (according to opinion polls). However, Likud managed to take away four of their seats in the final days leading up to the elections. It is evident that the increase in Likud's representation comes from within the right-wing camp, rather than from outside it.
It appears evident in this regard that Netanyahu is waiting for the right opportunity to announce the elections. For Netanyahu, the year 2018 was perhaps the best in his political career, as he achieved significant accomplishments. The US embassy was relocated to Jerusalem, an international agreement on Iran's nuclear program was canceled with Netanyahu's encouragement and push, his international standing increased, and his popularity remained high despite the investigations against him. The Likud party is under his control without significant competition.
Opinion polls indicate that the Israeli right-wing will return to the years preceding the direct elections for the prime minister, which contributed to the weakening of major parties. The situation will return to its previous state, with a large right-wing party (Likud) and smaller right-wing parties (less than ten seats). This enhances Likud's centrality within the Israeli right-wing and reduces the ability of its right-wing partners to blackmail or pressure it.
Based on that, we observe that the conflict within the right-wing camp regarding its social base has intensified in recent times, manifested by the following key expressions:
Firstly, the intense dispute between Minister of Education Naftali Bennett, the leader of the Jewish Home party, and Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, regarding the security stance towards the Gaza Strip. Each of them tries to appear as a security hardliner to gain support among the right-wing base.
Secondly, there is a reluctance to criticize Netanyahu regarding the Gaza Strip issue. Attacking him as the sole leader of the right weakens those who criticize him from within the right-wing camp. Consequently, coalition members attack each other.
Thirdly, Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon's shift towards the far-right concerning the status of the Supreme Court, the "Nation-State Law," and his approval of the "Loyalty in Culture Law" proposed by Minister of Culture Miri Regev.
The opposition
Regarding the current Israeli opposition, the main debate revolves around the possibility of former Chief of Staff, Benny Gantz, entering the political arena either through leading a new party, joining the Labor Party and becoming its leader, or joining a major opposition bloc proposed by Tzipi Livni, the current opposition leader.
In this regard, criticism of the leader of the Labor Party, Avi Gabbay, has increased in recent months, particularly in the past few days due to the party's decline in opinion polls, placing it in third position in terms of parliamentary representation, after the "Yesh Atid" party. Within the party, there is a growing call to give the party's leadership to Gantz in order to resolve the party's current predicament.
Gantz has not yet determined his position regarding the elections and the method of entering the political arena. However, even if he enters the political arena with a new party, it would likely come at the expense of seats from the opposition camp primarily, and would not pose a threat to the rule of Likud. Therefore, Livni believes that only through a large opposition bloc consisting of multiple parties can a viable alternative to Likud's rule be presented. The problem with this proposal is that Israeli politics in recent years have been leaning towards the idea of large blocs, where right-wing blocs constitute a larger electoral force compared to the opposition blocs without the Joint List.
As for the "Yesh Atid" party, which was approaching Likud in terms of the number of seats months ago, its representation has declined, especially after the move of the US embassy to Jerusalem, which gave Netanyahu a strong political boost. The gap between Likud and Yair Lapid's party, according to opinion polls, exceeds ten seats, making it extremely difficult for "Yesh Atid" to be a viable alternative to Likud.
In light of all the aforementioned, the current shifts in the Israeli political arena indicate cautious election movements due to the uncertainty surrounding the election date. This gives Netanyahu an advantage in determining the pace of political developments, as he is the only one capable of setting the dissolution of the Knesset and retains that power for himself.
Opinion polls also consider the possibility of the emergence of a new party led by Knesset member Orly Levy-Abekasis, the daughter of former Israeli Foreign Minister David Levy. She split from the "Israel Beiteinu" party led by Liberman when he decided to enter the coalition government. The polls expect Levy-Abekasis' party to obtain five seats, which are seats that, according to the opinion polls, it will take from the "Kulanu" party led by Finance Minister Kahlon. Her party will focus on the social and economic aspects, but there is no doubt that her political positions lean towards the right.
In this context, due to the small gap between the coalition camp and the opposition camp, Netanyahu proposed the idea of reducing the electoral threshold that was raised in the previous election cycle. The aim was to enable a small right-wing party led by former Minister and Knesset member Eli Yishai, who defected from the Shas movement, to enter the parliament. In the previous cycle, this party won around four seats but did not exceed the electoral threshold that was raised as per Liberman's proposal to target Arab parties. However, the right-wing lost four seats as a result. This proposal to reduce the electoral threshold is still a subject of debate within the government coalition itself, and there are opponents to it based on their own interests. Shas opposes this matter because it does not want Yishai to enter the parliament, even though maintaining the current electoral threshold also threatens its own position. The popularity of the Shas movement has significantly declined in recent years, and polls indicate that it may only win five seats, which is a significant collapse for a movement that was one of the prominent successes in the Israeli political arena in the 1990s. The Jewish Home party also opposes this idea because it wants to maintain its status as a representative of the religious right-wing settlement and as an ideological address for the right-wing. They also fear that Netanyahu plans, through reducing the electoral threshold, to expand the representation of the right-wing and thereby diminish the ability of the Jewish Home party to maneuver during government formation.
On the other hand, the Meretz party will maintain its strength almost intact and may even gain an additional seat at the expense of the Labor party, which continues to decline and has not found a solution to its severe crisis. In light of this ongoing situation, the Labor party could transform into the fourth force in the Israeli political arena.
Overall:
The political landscape in Israel, given the current situation, indicates the following:
Firstly, Likud, led by Netanyahu, will continue to lead the government with minor changes in its composition, granting greater centralization to Likud within the government at the expense of coalition members whose strength will decline.
Secondly, the Labor Party will not be able to recover from its troubled state if Gabbay remains as its leader. Even if the Labor Party manages to attract Gantz to its ranks, it will increase the party's representation in the Knesset but will not match the strength of Likud.
Thirdly, the balance of power between the opposition and the coalition will remain in favor of the current right-wing coalition, although it will not be significant. However, the opposition does not see the Joint List as an ally in its endeavor to change the Likud's rule.
Fourthly, the electoral scene will become thrilling, with one major party and three medium-sized parties, while the remaining parties will be small, with an average of fewer than ten seats each.
